Brazil is once again the pre-tournament favorite to win the World Cup, but the gap between them and the field is not as wide as it was in 2014.
Brazil has a 19% chance to win the World Cup in Russia, according to Nate Silver’s model at FiveThirtyEight. They gave Brazil a 36% chance to be champions on their home turf in the last World Cup.
In all, there are eight countries with at least a 5% chance of winning the World Cup.
Here are the chances of winning the World Cup on the eve of the tournament:
- Brazil, 19%
- Spain, 17%
- Germany, 13%
- France, 8%
- England, 7%
- Belgium, 7%
- Argentina, 7%
- Portugal, 6%
No other country has more than a 3% chance of winning the tournament and 14 of the 32 teams have less than a 1% chance of winning. The 24 countries not listed above have a combined shot of 16%. Host country Russia is listed at 1%.
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